Asclepius
Biotech venture valuation · reflexivity-adjusted PoS · phase-gated rNPV
A frontier asset read end to end — the reflexivity and supply-constraint theses in action, where a generic DCF stops at a single number.
── pre-staged assets ──
Mirati → BMS · Phase 2 · oncology · small molecule
Worked example. June 2022 cutoff; framework brackets the BMS $4.8B deal within ~2%. Drag the reflexivity slider for the headline demo.
Roche · Phase 3 · oncology · small molecule
Second-gen KRAS G12C (Roche) in a Phase 3 head-to-head vs sotorasib/adagrasib. Tests the framework on a well-capitalized sponsor in a competitive, target-validated field.
Iovance · Phase 3 · oncology · autologous cell therapy
Cell therapy retrospective. January 2024 cutoff (BLA filed); framework on autologous TIL economics — 38% COGS, constrained sponsor, $300M launch costs. FDA approved Feb 2024 as Amtagvi.
Merck (ex-Prometheus) · Phase 3 · autoimmune · monoclonal antibody
Anti-TL1A (Merck, ex-Prometheus) — a novel target class (no anti-TL1A approved yet) in Phase 3 for UC/Crohn's. Exercises the autoimmune-biologic cohort.
Biogen / Eisai · Phase 3 · CNS · monoclonal antibody
Contested-approval retrospective. March 2019 cutoff, immediately post-ENGAGE/EMERGE futility failure. FDA later approved over a 10-0 AdCom reject — a political process the framework can't predict.
Type a pre-approval asset name; the page opens with an empty form and an Auto-Diligence button that populates inputs from public sources (CT.gov, FDA, EDGAR, top journals) in ~30 seconds. Works on any biotech asset with sponsor-public information.